Where the race will be fought

With 50 days to go, we look at the districts that will be most contested in the upcoming Turkish election
Competitive provinces

With 50 days to go, we look at the districts that will be most contested in the upcoming Turkish election

Competitive provinces

The Turkish general election on 7 June 2015 will be contested in 85 electoral districts. The districts are not equally sized – neither in terms of seats nor population – although larger districts are represented by more MPs.

All districts will vote simultaneously on 7 June, although the race will be more competitive in some than others. Here are the four main groups of districts where JamesInTurkey.com will be watching the race.

Safe in yellow - but for how long?
Safe in yellow – but for how long?

Safe in yellow

2011 was a good election for the AK Party and particularly here. In 24 provinces, the government didn’t just win – it won overwhelmingly, taking more than 60 percent of the vote. In 2011, this accounted for nearly a third of the seats the party took.

Large seats like Konya (14 seats), Kayseri (9) and Kahramanmaraş (8) are safe bets with the AK expected to collect a very health majority.

But “safe” does not mean invulnerable. Having the HDP compete as a party rather than field independent candidates means AK will score far less than 60% in Gaziantep (12 seats) and Şanlıurfa (12), while the MHP will mount a challenge in Samsun (9) – and a fair few others too.

The HDP seventeen

The Kurdish 17
The Kurdish 17

This is where the battle will be between AK and the HDP.

Kurdish rooted parties are traditionally strong in these provinces and this will be the first parliamentary election in 13 years to feature a pro-Kurdish choice on the ballot.

There will be some interesting competition to watch with AK in previously safe Gaziantep and Şanlıurfa, which are among the largest provinces in the region, and to a lesser extent in the smaller eastern town of Bingöl (3 seats).

Further west, Adana (14 seats) and Mersin (11) will bundle in the CHP and MHP to deliver fascinating four-way contests as fascinating as Istanbul.

Middle-sized cities

The competitive middle-sized cities
The competitive middle-sized cities

These eight provinces each deliver between 8 and 14 seats and are not dominated by the AK Party. In fact, all the parties can credibly compete in many of them.

They range from Manisa (9 seats), which was claimed by the MHP in last year’s local election, to Antalya (14), which fell to AK at the same time after a protracted battle with the CHP, and the aforementioned Adana, where the HDP is more influential than many care to admit.

Treat these provinces as a microcosm for the rest of Turkey.

Biggest cities

The big three
The big three

Turkey’s three biggest cities are where elections are won and lost. The rehearsed rule of thumb for Turkish elections is that Izmir votes secular, Ankara votes conservative and he who wins Istanbul wins the country.

But there is plenty of reason to doubt that theory because there are more AK voters in Izmir (26 seats) than most will care to admit while  Ankara (32) missed out on electing a CHP mayor by only a handful votes – at least, according to official figures.

Istanbul (86 seats) is the behemoth where all parties will campaign prolifically. Expect the big three parties each to hold their final rallies here.

And don’t overlook the HDP: where it crosses the threshold or not, support for the party will have an impact in all three big cities.

Total
0
Shares
4,090 comments
  1. Good article and great map! May I kindly ask which software, or online (info)graphics tool you have used to create the map? (Let me also reveal what I have in mind: I find the full yellow-coloured election map very wrong. It looks as if the system is “winner takes it all,” and so looking for a tool to create striped map where the width of stripes be the % of MPs won by each party in each region.) All the best, ~~ @efekerem

  2. Hi, I think your blog might be having browser compatibility issues. When I look at your blog site in Chrome, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping. I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other then that, wonderful blog!

  3. Hello! This post couldn’t be written any better! Reading through this post reminds me of my previous room mate! He always kept talking about this. I will forward this write-up to him. Fairly certain he will have a good read. Many thanks for sharing!

  4. Greetings from Florida! I’m bored at work so I decided to check out your site on my iphone during lunch break. I enjoy the knowledge you provide here and can’t wait to take a look when I get home. I’m surprised at how quick your blog loaded on my phone .. I’m not even using WIFI, just 3G .. Anyhow, great site!

  5. Whats Going down i’m new to this, I stumbled upon this I’ve found It positively helpful and it has aided me out loads. I am hoping to contribute & assist other customers like its helped me. Good job.

  6. Positive site, where did u come up with the information on this posting?I have read a few of the articles on your website now, and I really like your style. Thanks a million and please keep up the effective work |

  7. Thanks for sharing superb informations. Your site is very cool. I’m impressed by the details that you have on this web site. It reveals how nicely you understand this subject. Bookmarked this web page, will come back for more articles. You, my pal, ROCK! I found just the info I already searched everywhere and just could not come across. What a great website.

  8. I liked as much as you’ll obtain performed proper here. The comic strip is attractive, your authored subject matter stylish. nevertheless, you command get got an impatience over that you would like be handing over the following. unwell definitely come more in the past again as precisely the similar nearly a lot continuously within case you protect this hike.

  9. Greetings, I do think your website might be having internet browser compatibility issues. Whenever I take a look at your site in Safari, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it’s got some overlapping issues. I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other than that, fantastic website!

  10. Does your site have a contact page? I’m having problems locating it but, I’d like to send you an e-mail. I’ve got some suggestions for your blog you might be interested in hearing. Either way, great blog and I look forward to seeing it grow over time.

  11. I do trust all the ideas you’ve offered on your post. They are really convincing and will certainly work. Nonetheless, the posts are very quick for beginners. Could you please prolong them a bit from subsequent time? Thanks for the post.

  12. You’re so interesting! I do not believe I’ve truly read through something like this before. So wonderful to find somebody with some original thoughts on this subject. Seriously.. thanks for starting this up. This site is one thing that’s needed on the internet, someone with a little originality!

  13. Howdy! This article could not be written any better! Looking at this article reminds me of my previous roommate! He constantly kept preaching about this. I’ll forward this article to him. Fairly certain he’s going to have a good read. I appreciate you for sharing!

  14. Hey there! This post couldn’t be written any better! Reading this post reminds me of my old room mate! He always kept talking about this. I will forward this article to him. Fairly certain he will have a good read. Thank you for sharing!

  15. Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point. You clearly know what youre talking about, why waste your intelligence on just posting videos to your site when you could be giving us something enlightening to read?

  16. Great site you have here but I was curious if you knew of any user discussion forums that cover the same topics discussed here? I’d really love to be a part of community where I can get opinions from other experienced people that share the same interest. If you have any recommendations, please let me know. Appreciate it!

  17. Right here is the right website for anyone who wishes to find out about this topic. You realize so much its almost tough to argue with you (not that I personally will need to…HaHa). You certainly put a brand new spin on a topic that has been discussed for years. Wonderful stuff, just wonderful!

  18. I wanted to create you this tiny note to thank you so much over again relating to the nice tips you have provided in this case. This is so strangely generous of you to provide freely what most people could have marketed as an ebook to generate some cash on their own, mostly now that you might well have tried it if you ever considered necessary. Those good tips likewise worked to become easy way to recognize that other people online have the identical zeal similar to my personal own to figure out way more in regard to this condition. I know there are thousands of more pleasurable periods ahead for those who discover your blog.

  19. A large percentage of of whatever you articulate is supprisingly precise and it makes me wonder the reason why I had not looked at this with this light before. This particular article truly did turn the light on for me personally as far as this specific topic goes. But there is actually one particular factor I am not too comfy with so while I try to reconcile that with the actual core idea of the point, allow me observe exactly what all the rest of your subscribers have to say.Very well done.

  20. It is truly a great and helpful piece of information. I’m satisfied that you simply shared this helpful info with us. Please keep us up to date like this. Thanks for sharing.

  21. Woah! I’m really enjoying the template/theme of this blog. It’s simple, yet effective. A lot of times it’s challenging to get that “perfect balance” between user friendliness and visual appeal. I must say you’ve done a awesome job with this. Additionally, the blog loads very quick for me on Safari. Exceptional Blog!

  22. Hi there, simply was aware of your weblog via Google, and found that it’s really informative. I am going to be careful for brussels. I will be grateful when you proceed this in future. Numerous folks might be benefited from your writing. Cheers!

  23. An outstanding share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a friend who had been doing a little research on this. And he in fact ordered me breakfast due to the fact that I discovered it for him… lol. So let me reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending the time to talk about this subject here on your internet site.

  24. Have you ever considered about adding a little bit more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is fundamental and all. Nevertheless think of if you added some great visuals or videos to give your posts more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but with pics and videos, this site could undeniably be one of the best in its field. Very good blog!

  25. This is the perfect site for anybody who hopes to understand this topic. You understand a whole lot its almost tough to argue with you (not that I actually would want to…HaHa). You definitely put a new spin on a subject that has been written about for years. Excellent stuff, just excellent!

  26. I’d like to thank you for the efforts you have put in penning this blog. I’m hoping to view the same high-grade content by you later on as well. In fact, your creative writing abilities has encouraged me to get my very own site now 😉

  27. It’s the best time to make some plans for the future and it is time to be happy. I’ve read this post and if I could I desire to suggest you few interesting things or suggestions. Perhaps you could write next articles referring to this article. I wish to read even more things about it!

  28. Oh my goodness! Impressive article dude! Thank you so much, However I am encountering difficulties with your RSS. I don’t know the reason why I cannot join it. Is there anybody having the same RSS problems? Anyone who knows the answer can you kindly respond? Thanx!!

  29. Can I simply just say what a comfort to discover an individual who genuinely understands what they’re talking about on the web. You actually realize how to bring an issue to light and make it important. A lot more people need to look at this and understand this side of your story. I can’t believe you’re not more popular since you certainly have the gift.

  30. You are so interesting! I don’t suppose I’ve truly read through something like this before. So good to find another person with original thoughts on this issue. Seriously.. thanks for starting this up. This site is something that’s needed on the internet, someone with a little originality!

  31. Pingback: ivermectin 1 cream
  32. Pingback: Anonymous
  33. Pingback: Anonymous
  34. Pingback: Anonymous
  35. Having read this I believed it was very informative. I appreciate you finding the time and energy to put this information together. I once again find myself spending a lot of time both reading and posting comments. But so what, it was still worthwhile!

  36. Just about all of what you point out is astonishingly accurate and that makes me wonder why I hadn’t looked at this in this light previously. This particular piece really did switch the light on for me personally as far as this specific subject matter goes. Nonetheless at this time there is just one issue I am not necessarily too cozy with and while I try to reconcile that with the actual core theme of the position, let me see just what all the rest of your readers have to point out.Very well done.

  37. Fantastic goods from you, man. I have consider your stuff previous to and you’re simply extremely wonderful. I really like what you have received here, certainly like what you’re stating and the way through which you are saying it. You make it enjoyable and you still care for to keep it sensible. I cant wait to read much more from you. This is really a terrific web site.

  38. After looking into a few of the articles on your site, I really like your technique of blogging. I bookmarked it to my bookmark website list and will be checking back soon. Take a look at my website too and let me know what you think.

  39. An outstanding share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a co-worker who has been conducting a little homework on this. And he actually ordered me lunch because I found it for him… lol. So let me reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending the time to talk about this topic here on your web page.

  40. I’m really loving the theme/design of your site. Do you ever run into any web browser compatibility problems? A small number of my blog readers have complained about my site not working correctly in Explorer but looks great in Safari. Do you have any advice to help fix this issue?

  41. You are so cool! I do not believe I have read through a single thing like this before. So nice to discover someone with unique thoughts on this issue. Really.. thanks for starting this up. This web site is something that is required on the web, someone with a little originality!

  42. There are actually lots of particulars like that to take into consideration. That is a nice point to convey up. I provide the thoughts above as general inspiration however clearly there are questions just like the one you deliver up where crucial thing shall be working in honest good faith. I don?t know if finest practices have emerged round issues like that, but I am sure that your job is clearly recognized as a fair game. Both boys and girls really feel the impact of just a moment’s pleasure, for the remainder of their lives.

  43. Having read this I thought it was extremely informative. I appreciate you finding the time and effort to put this content together. I once again find myself spending a lot of time both reading and posting comments. But so what, it was still worth it!

  44. Pingback: buy ivermectin
  45. I must thank you for the efforts you’ve put in penning this website. I am hoping to check out the same high-grade content by you in the future as well. In truth, your creative writing abilities has inspired me to get my very own site now 😉

  46. Pingback: ivermectin 12 mg
  47. I blog frequently and I seriously thank you for your content. This article has truly peaked my interest. I am going to take a note of your blog and keep checking for new details about once a week. I opted in for your Feed too.

  48. The very next time I read a blog, I hope that it won’t disappoint me as much as this one. After all, Yes, it was my choice to read, however I truly thought you would have something interesting to talk about. All I hear is a bunch of moaning about something you could fix if you were not too busy searching for attention.

  49. May I simply say what a comfort to discover somebody that truly knows what they’re talking about on the internet. You actually realize how to bring a problem to light and make it important. A lot more people need to read this and understand this side of your story. I was surprised you aren’t more popular because you definitely have the gift.

  50. Oh my goodness! Awesome article dude! Thank you, However I am having difficulties with your RSS. I donít know the reason why I cannot join it. Is there anybody else having identical RSS problems? Anybody who knows the solution will you kindly respond? Thanx!!

  51. Iím impressed, I must say. Rarely do I encounter a blog thatís both educative and amusing, and let me tell you, you have hit the nail on the head. The problem is an issue that too few people are speaking intelligently about. I am very happy I came across this during my hunt for something concerning this.

  52. After looking over a handful of the blog articles on your site, I honestly like your way of writing a blog. I added it to my bookmark site list and will be checking back in the near future. Please check out my web site as well and tell me your opinion.

  53. When I initially left a comment I appear to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on every time a comment is added I recieve 4 emails with the exact same comment. Perhaps there is a means you can remove me from that service? Thanks!

  54. The very next time I read a blog, Hopefully it doesn’t disappoint me just as much as this particular one. I mean, Yes, it was my choice to read, but I really thought you would have something interesting to talk about. All I hear is a bunch of complaining about something that you can fix if you were not too busy searching for attention.

  55. Next time I read a blog, Hopefully it does not disappoint me as much as this particular one. I mean, I know it was my choice to read, however I really thought you would probably have something useful to say. All I hear is a bunch of complaining about something you could possibly fix if you were not too busy seeking attention.

  56. Pingback: 20 mg furosemide
  57. I absolutely love your blog.. Excellent colors & theme. Did you make this amazing site yourself? Please reply back as I’m planning to create my own personal blog and would like to know where you got this from or exactly what the theme is called. Thanks!

  58. Pingback: ivermectin cost
  59. Pingback: ivermectina dosis
  60. Right here is the right webpage for everyone who really wants to understand this topic. You know a whole lot its almost tough to argue with you (not that I personally will need toÖHaHa). You certainly put a new spin on a topic that has been discussed for decades. Excellent stuff, just wonderful!

  61. Hello there, There’s no doubt that your web site might be having browser compatibility issues. When I look at your site in Safari, it looks fine however, if opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping issues. I merely wanted to give you a quick heads up! Aside from that, excellent blog!

  62. Iím amazed, I must say. Rarely do I encounter a blog thatís both equally educative and engaging, and let me tell you, you have hit the nail on the head. The problem is something that too few men and women are speaking intelligently about. Now i’m very happy that I came across this in my search for something concerning this.

  63. Great article! That is the kind of information that are supposed to be shared around the internet. Disgrace on the search engines for now not positioning this put up upper! Come on over and seek advice from my website . Thank you =)

  64. Can I simply say what a relief to uncover someone who really understands what they’re talking about on the net. You definitely know how to bring an issue to light and make it important. More people should check this out and understand this side of your story. I was surprised you’re not more popular because you surely have the gift.

  65. I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting my own weblog and was curious what all is needed to get setup? I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very web savvy so I’m not 100 certain. Any suggestions or advice would be greatly appreciated. Thank you

  66. Hi, I do think this is an excellent site. I stumbledupon it 😉 I may come back yet again since i have book marked it. Money and freedom is the best way to change, may you be rich and continue to guide other people.

  67. Hello there, I do think your website could possibly be having browser compatibility issues. Whenever I look at your web site in Safari, it looks fine however when opening in IE, it has some overlapping issues. I merely wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other than that, fantastic website!

  68. Way cool! Some very valid points! I appreciate you writing this article and also the rest of the website is extremely good.

  69. Unquestionably believe that which you stated. Your favorite justification seemed to be on the net the easiest thing
    to be aware of. I say to you, I certainly get annoyed while
    people consider worries that they plainly don’t know about.
    You managed to hit the nail upon the top as well
    as defined out the whole thing without having side effect , people can take a signal.

    Will likely be back to get more. Thanks

  70. Howdy! This blog post couldnít be written any better! Looking at this article reminds me of my previous roommate! He constantly kept talking about this. I am going to send this article to him. Pretty sure he will have a great read. Many thanks for sharing!