This morning’s police raids targeted 106 suspects but the focus, of course, is on the man who is Turkey’s most recognisable politician after Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Saving a dramatic shift in the next couple of hours, Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Turkey’s largest city is about to spend his first night behind bars. The law says he can be held for four days before being formally charged by a judge – although that period can be lengthened for terror suspects.
İmamoğlu faces two broad allegations:
(1) Fraud and corruption relating to his business interests and those of the Istanbul municipality that he leads;
(2) Terrorism, over allegations the CHP’s informal election pact with the pro-Kurdish HDP actually channelled funds to the PKK
The second allegation threatens his mayoralty immediately.
The interior minister has the power to unseat any mayor who is accused of terror charges, even if they have not yet been convicted. Dozens of pro-Kurdish party mayors in southeast Turkey have been replaced in this way.
In Turkish political terms Istanbul is prized because it is so vast. Its population is larger than Ireland or Denmark, greater than 46 US states. This city elected İmamoğlu in three successive elections with increasing majorities. In 2024, one in every two people voted for him.
That is why unseating İmamoğlu and installing a government-friendly replacement is technically possible, but carries grave risk.
The prize is control of the contracts and services that help run a city of 16 million. The risk is that voters see it a political power grab.
That’s why it was no coincidence that the economy minister appeared on social media to post messages designed to reassure markets spooked by the political turbulence.
Mehmet Şimşek says his economic plan “is being implemented with determination”.
President Erdoğan’s de facto coalition partner Devlet Bahçeli, who tends to choose his words carefully, responded by calling the Turkish judiciary “independent, impartial and objective”.
He also had another message: “innocent until proven guilty”.
There are many confident predictions doing the social media rounds about what today will means for İmamoğlu and Erdoğan’s future.
In truth, that is an impossible call to make right now. But it does not feel like the end of İmamoğlu’s career. Far from it.
