To win the next election, Turkey’s opposition party has a mountain to climb
Here’s a prediction that won’t astonish anyone: the CHP will not win Turkey’s next general election in two years’ time.
A victory for the main opposition party is a monumentally difficult thing to achieve not just because of the party’s current leadership woes, but because the governing AK Party has a solid hold on power.
A Metropoll survey at the end of December, which showed a near-uniform swing in support away from the three main parties, reported a full 25 per cent of voters saying they are undecided on who to support, or would spoil their ballot or not vote at all. Granted, we are at that stage when the next election is years away and the last one a distant memory, but such large voter apathy in a country where election day turnouts average between 80 and 90% is remarkable.
Among respondents who said they definitely would vote, Metropoll found AK Party support had slumped to 39.1%, a full ten percentage points below its landslide 2011 election result. The survey also showed a drop in support for the CHP (17.6%, down nine points) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP, 9.8% percent).
But despite each party’s reduced support, this survey should look rather familiar. A clear AK Party lead that doubles the CHP’s support and an MHP that struggles to cross the 10 per cent electoral threshold is the 2011 general election all over again.
For a projection of how these results would be reflected in parliament, see this:
This is a uniform swing projection and inherently crude. It ignores a number of important factors: regional variation (the change in vote share wouldn’t be identical around the country); Kurdish support (this projection assumes the same 35 independent MPs as in 2011) and local issues, which can produce a result against the national trend.
However, it is still useful because it produces a result based on changes to the last election result in each electoral district. It takes the national change in vote share for each party, runs the D’Hondt calculation method in each of the 84 districts, then adds up all 550 seats.
The result is not very different from 2011. The AK Party loses seven seats; two to the CHP, five to the MHP, which gets the greater windfall because the D’Hondt method favours smaller parties. Nothing hugely remarkable so far.
More interesting is where the AK Party lost those seven seats. These are the government’s most vulnerable marginals, the seats they most narrowly won at the last election and are most likely to lose next time.
Highlighted in red: Adana, Bursa, Mersin, Istanbul (1st district), Izmir (1st), Kayseri and Ordu.
Now, some of these electoral districts are huge. Istanbul alone sent 82 MPs to parliament at the last election. D’Hondt favours smaller parties, meaning that a large party is always going to be more vulnerable in a larger district if it has already won quite a few seats.
But the seven districts in my list above are not Turkey’s seven largest districts. They include Ordu (6 seats) and Mersin (10 seats), but not Ankara (29 seats). This means that the differences in regional voting do count for something. More on this in a moment.
CHP victory: what it takes
Clearly, this Metropoll survey would leave the CHP far from an election victory. So what would it take?
The last time a Turkish pollster showed a CHP lead was before the last election in June 2010, a week after Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu became party leader, when SONAR found it had 32.5% support over the AK Party’s 31.1%.
If we were to take SONAR’s result and assume it represented a swing in a future general election, this is how a uniform swing projection would look (with changes from the 2011 result):
The AK Party would lose 30 seats – ten to the MHP, twenty to the CHP – but would still command enough to avoid a coalition.
Again, it’s not surprising that this result wouldn’t deliver a CHP victory or indeed an AK-led coalition government. The CHP lead in the survey was only 1.6 percentage points, within SONAR’s margin of error, and AK does benefit from a strong position of incumbency. But under this projection the AK Party would still lose more seats than it ever has before, and it’s interesting to see where.
The AK Party would lose four seats from Istanbul and two from Ankara to the CHP under this projection. In Adana, Antalya, Elazığ, Eskişehir, Gaziantep, Hatay, Kırşehir, Kocaeli, Konya, Kütahya, Manisa and Zonguldak, it would lose one each.
Strategies
To win a Turkish general election, the CHP would clearly need to attract voters who previously supported the AK Party. The map above shows that the CHP is closer to winning seats in the west, where cities are larger and have more people living in them.
Seats in the east are far harder for the CHP to convert. AK Party support is far stronger here: the population is smaller and a larger proportion lives in small towns and the country.
An election result that resembles SONAR’s three-year-old survey would return a stronger CHP to opposition, not government. The party would need to do far more to break down AK Party fortresses around the country. These nineteen seats would be just the beginning.
That is why stronger opposition is the best result the CHP can hope for at the next election. For anything better, there needs to be a sea change in Turkish politics. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s elevation to the presidency could upset everything.
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finlbelg 7b17bfd26b https://coub.com/stories/3476759-koka-shastra-book-in-urdu
janken 7b17bfd26b https://seesaawiki.jp/channaconme/d/Gyptian%20Ft%20Nicki%20Minaj%20Hold%20Yuh%20Instrumental%20Mp3%20Downloadgolkes
darnraf 7b17bfd26b https://coub.com/stories/3257224-umenie-vojny-sun-tzu-pdf-download-install
janykai 7b17bfd26b https://seesaawiki.jp/xperjalare/d/Windows%20Hgwc%20Crossfire%20Ph%20Download%20Full%20Crack%2064%20Build%20Registration%20%21EXCLUSIVE%21
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zanteni 7b17bfd26b https://seesaawiki.jp/nobsminciowarb/d/Full%20Camtasia%20Studio%208%20Torrent%20Windows%20Crack%20Professional%2032%20License%20%5fVERIFIED%5f
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lighand 7b17bfd26b https://seesaawiki.jp/prinisarlu/d/Telefonski%20Imenik%20Slovenije%202013%20Download
harjai 7b17bfd26b https://coub.com/stories/3241375-portable-elementary-linear-algebra-10th-edition-solution-manual-pdfrar
crisjane 7b17bfd26b https://trello.com/c/EePYDaMA/75-warcraft-3-graphics-mod
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faviham 7b17bfd26b https://coub.com/stories/3222358-startisback-2-7-2-multilingual-pre-activated-babupc-devgael
nannrana 7b17bfd26b https://seesaawiki.jp/hacomsogess/d/As%20100%20Melhores%20Musicas%20Dos%20Anos%2070%2080%20E%2090
osboyesi 7b17bfd26b https://coub.com/stories/3495515-_verified_-ghostbusters-answer-the-call-english-in-hindi-720p
heryel 7b17bfd26b https://trello.com/c/DZMkpvWx/40-upd-download-film-the-cigarette-ki-tarah
chekam 7b17bfd26b https://trello.com/c/ySj74sNM/47-dwg-viewer-7-1-1-11-new-crack
georhin 7b17bfd26b https://wakelet.com/wake/R8vfXsA2cneoOjKUpfql7
juslan 7b17bfd26b https://coub.com/stories/3121187-dear-cousin-bill-boy-video-hot
caycher 7b17bfd26b https://wakelet.com/wake/nc9sIU5x89v07__tvKu-3
wyndsymp 7b17bfd26b https://trello.com/c/Fcphctpi/33-punjabiakhanmuhavarepdf40-free
acqhay 7b17bfd26b https://wakelet.com/wake/goWcj_lQWEeNIeJ6M6Dkx
nicnoe 7b17bfd26b https://trello.com/c/hGo12OG0/54-nikoleta-romanou-i-fili-tis-koris-mou-rapidshare
triino 7b17bfd26b https://wakelet.com/wake/t5rEPfYtIT7Gi0F11maBx
frydben 7b17bfd26b https://wakelet.com/wake/yiGy_uvApPIuggiSdGf03
futgabr 7b17bfd26b https://wakelet.com/wake/OPT9PCo5xN4E3nGkC4qOB
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sancmar 7b17bfd26b https://wakelet.com/wake/k3yhzppXArbFQMRkjgVTN
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walabr 7b17bfd26b https://wakelet.com/wake/hWMVE7meguFU7kmk5vnUJ
jammzak 7b17bfd26b https://trello.com/c/N8KyAvHJ/67-malayalam-song-penninte-chenchun
denzfut bcbef96d84 https://wakelet.com/wake/MGZmxlc_SbLqMYUx6Y-Ax
lavesty ec2f99d4de https://coub.com/stories/3973464-download-for-ni-multisim-13-0-windows-ultimate-license-64bit
alelau ec2f99d4de https://coub.com/stories/4034554-x32-convo-inverter-cvf-g3-patch-pc-download
uzzilawl ec2f99d4de https://wakelet.com/wake/AD84EWtWSdP7ndqgh-gF8
venmol ec2f99d4de https://trello.com/c/Dn6MR0h0/32-new-headway-intermediate-fourth-final-rar-utorrent-windows-full-version
olwicat ec2f99d4de https://coub.com/stories/3988079-key-cocina-windows-patch-final-iso-64
benlinn 67426dafae https://coub.com/stories/3950597-champoon-by-theb-mahapaorya-ebook-pdf-rar-full-download
endgray 67426dafae https://coub.com/stories/4034864-utorrent-ed-edd-n-eddy-complete-series-x264-mp4-4k-free-subtitles-dubbed
chadar 67426dafae https://coub.com/stories/3967646-x32-como-entrar-a-mi-correo-ovi-patch-torrent-pc
paecael 67426dafae https://coub.com/stories/3991409-kasey-oc-activator-serial-rar-final-utorrent
tuctamy 67426dafae https://coub.com/stories/4029618-subtitles-zonerich-ab-88kiv-driver-full-1080p-utorrent-movies-hd
gavrfemi 31ebe8ef48 https://wakelet.com/wake/k59TgYr1VjWl-v5LBynXG
dakojaic 31ebe8ef48 https://wakelet.com/wake/N74b1aUH_SWep1r2CfMpa
marzavi 31ebe8ef48 https://wakelet.com/wake/evf8A4JrBs3pKTjRqudlC
navkirr 31ebe8ef48 https://wakelet.com/wake/locgmUz_nZ_N6xS1UAgzM
sibistr 31ebe8ef48 https://wakelet.com/wake/x7-tTPIwe3daI3P8q9Va5
geojaly 31ebe8ef48 https://wakelet.com/wake/xkt6d6QLA-dIatO1BV7Nq
darott 31ebe8ef48 https://wakelet.com/wake/sJBJH2xH5oqlHLBV5zhac
benhall 31ebe8ef48 https://wakelet.com/wake/Ufj_WDOPNthOlfhXMaTNu
mariell 31ebe8ef48 https://wakelet.com/wake/-Mz5-wRCUGXfWFOiYzbkX
kertenn 00dffbbc3c https://coub.com/stories/4356628-x64-corel-draw-x13-zip-download-serial
legjam 00dffbbc3c https://coub.com/stories/4308721-kmspico-11-3-0-windows-activator-professional-64-download
charjae 219d99c93a https://coub.com/stories/4300495-the-judge-mujrim-torrents-hd-film-avi-blu-ray-2k-english
sentrem 219d99c93a https://coub.com/stories/4245294-microsoft-office-2019-iso-latest-x64-utorrent-license-windows-full
glenregi 219d99c93a https://coub.com/stories/4362287-100-vjet-vetmi-epub-free-utorrent-book-zip
nadelm 219d99c93a https://coub.com/stories/4260766-staad-pro-v8i-ss6-v20-07-11-90-activator-32bit-final-rar
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gladcas 219d99c93a https://coub.com/stories/4221210-dizionario-lati-castiglioni-mariotti-zip-ebook-pdf-full-torrent
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burldeja d9ca4589f4 https://wakelet.com/wake/BI3vAkV3qQYYMsyWIOvgp
casharo d9ca4589f4 https://wakelet.com/wake/FbuprX3lyHsfAPZH-JdX3
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lynjana 538a28228e https://coub.com/stories/4310633-siemens-sinamics-starter-windows-registration-build-torrent-patch-x64
pairam 538a28228e https://coub.com/stories/4351505-zip-thematic-apperception-test-cards-torrent-book-full-pdf
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rangcaec 538a28228e https://coub.com/stories/4318124-watch-online-schritte-watch-online-1080-download-kickass
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acaramb 538a28228e https://coub.com/stories/4371723-kannada-ga-galu-explanation-87-mobi-zip-download-book-full-version
fortlyn 538a28228e https://coub.com/stories/4330191-windows-jeff-loomis-zero-or-32bit-cracked-pro-zip-key-torrent
ellher 538a28228e https://coub.com/stories/4311601-ges-r-cocina-paco-roncero-ultimate-serial-64bit-rar-activator-pc
ikagarr 538a28228e https://coub.com/stories/4219651-smurfs-the-lost-village-torrents-torrent-avi-blu-ray-4k-hd
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tancar b8d0503c82 https://coub.com/stories/4581766-moonvr-full-x64-utorrent-windows-ultimate-exe
dalosm b8d0503c82 https://coub.com/stories/4722157-abviewer-10-iso-download-cracked-activator-full
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manobad b8d0503c82 https://coub.com/stories/4631674-amityville-the-awakening-2016-online-subtitrat-video-dts-full-dubbed-watch-online
talinen b8d0503c82 https://coub.com/stories/4617615-itel-a15-flash-rar-activator-32bit-full-final-windows-keygen
paddida b8d0503c82 https://coub.com/stories/4545386-full-fm-fmrte-lisans-kodu-indir-rar-cracked-activator-build
frewyl b8d0503c82 https://coub.com/stories/4677301-2k-welcome-2-karachi-mp4-movie-dts-subtitles-rip
nedelde 220b534e1b https://www.kaggle.com/alcharcugee/hot-free-download-tutorial-bahasa-indon
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hellbrea df76b833ed https://www.kaggle.com/libilocom/upd-idhar-aa-behan-ke-laude-honey-singh
pelwayn df76b833ed https://www.kaggle.com/bacacontdus/wondershare-filmora-9-5-2-1-keygen-crack-top
leideri 89fccdb993 https://www.guilded.gg/rotoromys-Pack/overview/news/9loqwDxy
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ihodani f23d57f842 https://www.guilded.gg/kindesclotus-Lightning/overview/news/Plq1d4Pl
khrykahl f23d57f842 https://www.guilded.gg/diacruntaulas-Cougars/overview/news/4lGWbVWl
xavyemi f23d57f842 https://www.guilded.gg/progupevbies-Caravan/overview/news/1ROEOnL6
evelill f23d57f842 https://www.guilded.gg/nrensignruptsembs-Pioneers/overview/news/vR13NPd6
valurb f23d57f842 https://www.guilded.gg/neantogefors-Platoon/overview/news/dlv1oQGR
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bryodemp f23d57f842 https://www.guilded.gg/naicibasubs-Senators/overview/news/gy8AoxLR
janswhy f23d57f842 https://www.guilded.gg/gauclearittabs-Army/overview/news/Plq1Bpzl
enliva f23d57f842 https://www.guilded.gg/akalatves-Raiders/overview/news/gy8A9VVR
jaricare 6be7b61eaf https://trello.com/c/gsZ7RS0O/51-sonya-m-candydoll
kailquyn f23d57f842 https://www.guilded.gg/bangmapjuststeps-Beavers/overview/news/dl7p35m6
vantned f23d57f842 https://www.guilded.gg/ciacredenrecs-Bulldogs/overview/news/2lMo1VVy
janasup f23d57f842 https://www.guilded.gg/crimacexels-Caravan/overview/news/4lGgoaPl
dararia f23d57f842 https://www.guilded.gg/kayreithricals-Outlaws/overview/news/B6Z7gx5y
valtha f23d57f842 https://www.guilded.gg/piabirthnawebs-Comets/overview/news/4ld7YE5R
arnmain 6be7b61eaf https://trello.com/c/znn7zfci/39-hd-online-player-charlie2015malayalam1080pblu-raydtsx2648gb14-elijan
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saxtrany 9c0aa8936d https://boiling-stream-39529.herokuapp.com/Bully-Scholarship-Edition-Nude-Mod.pdf
salber 9c0aa8936d https://fierce-reaches-16782.herokuapp.com/Fotos-De-Ninas-Chiquitas-Desnudas.pdf
deafar cbbc620305 https://marketplace.visualstudio.com/items?itemName=MoonSeal.Parinda-1989-Hindi-Movie-DvDRip-X264-UPD
laueli cbbc620305 https://marketplace.visualstudio.com/items?itemName=Svatosh.Libroelverdaderopablosangretraicionymuertepdf-EXCLUSIVE
quennick cbbc620305 https://bowiscola5.artstation.com/projects/4XP9Wq
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henkyli 63b95dad73 https://marketplace.visualstudio.com/items?itemName=invisalig.HOT-Ziphone-30-64-Bit
derdevo 63b95dad73 https://marketplace.visualstudio.com/items?itemName=SolodenKa.Duplicate-Photo-Cleaner-Crack-Full-Version-license-WORK
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