Regional poll suggests AK Party woes

There are further signs that support for Turkey’s governing party is sliding
Competitive districts
Seats based on Gezici’s survey, 14-15 March 2015

There are further signs that support for Turkey’s governing party is sliding

Antalya Urfa

An interesting survey by the pollster Gezici last week uses the unusual tactic of polling voters in six specific provinces rather than across Tureky as a whole.

The six – Antalya, Mersin, Adana, Gaziantep, Hatay and Şanlıurfa – are interesting because they are all medium-sized towns that have historically attracted support from all the main political parties. This means they can produce a picture of the average Turkish voter that is more accurate than, say, an AK Party stronghold in central Anatolia.

The results reveal a few interesting trends:

Competitive districts
Seats based on Gezici’s survey, 14-15 March 2015

First, support for the AK Party is falling in each province: slightly in the west, but dramatically in the east. In Antalya, where the AK candidate won the mayoralty by a whisker in last year’s local elections, the party’s support is down by more than six percentage points. But in Gaziantep and Şanlıurfa, near the Syrian border, support is down by as much as a third.

Second, the apparent east/west divide dictates the party that benefits most from this potential AK exodus. There are clear gains in the east for the pro-Kurdish HDP, which is contesting the election as a party for the first time in 13 years. In the west, the beneficiary is the nationalist MHP, the party most likely to appeal to conservative AK voters.

Third, support for the main opposition CHP appears to be relatively static with the notable exception is Gaziantep, where Gezici found the greatest drop in AK Party support.

The CHP result will be reassuring for those concerned that the centre-left vote is being split by the HDP, as it suggests the CHP core vote is holding strong. But as the election campaign gets underway it is the CHP’s rivals that appear to be plundering disenchanted AK voters.

Gezici poll Adana Gezici poll Antalya Gezici poll Gaziantep Gezici poll Hatay Gezici poll Mersin Gezici poll ŞanlıurfaIndeed, JamesInTurkey.com’s projection of the seat distribution in each province reveals the CHP gains only one seat (in Gaziantep) if Gezici’s results were played out in an election. The HDP would gain five seats and the MHP, six.

If the same trend was reflected across the country, the AK Party would be returned to power as a single-party government. It would, however, be well short of the seats needed to change the constitution and introduce an executive presidency. That assumes, however, that the HDP crosses the 10% election threshold.

No reckless conclusions

As with all election polling, it’s important to bear in mind some caveats. This is not a reflection of how people will vote on 7 June. Gezici’s survey result is just one snapshot of voter intentions nearly three weeks ago and opinion may have changed. The research was conducted well before the mass power cuts and the subsequent hostage incident in Istanbul, for example.

It’s also worth noting that, although its methods appear straightforward, Gezici’s surveys do tend to underrepresent support for the AK Party.

But it’s interesting that a regional poll appears to corroborate the trend in this website’s long-term polling, that there is a small but noticeable drop in support for the government. Let’s see if the election campaign changes that.

 

Total
0
Shares
36 comments
  1. I am extremely inspired with your writing abilities and also with the format in your blog.
    Is this a paid theme or did you modify it yourself? Either way
    stay up the nice high quality writing, it’s rare to peer
    a nice weblog like this one nowadays..

  2. Thanks for some other informative blog. Where else may just I
    am getting that kind of info written in such an ideal approach?
    I have a challenge that I’m simply now running on, and I’ve been on the look out for such information.

  3. Hello there, I do think your site may be having browser compatibility issues.
    When I look at your blog in Safari, it looks fine however, if opening
    in I.E., it has some overlapping issues. I
    just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other than that, excellent site!

  4. This past couple of years I certainly began paying attention to national politics, policies and the candidates I’m considering supporting. That’s the key reason why I’m supporting Joe Collins and his bid for Congress throughout this unique coming elections. Joe Collins 3 is exactly the type of congressional candidate every one of us ought to back. Joe spent 13 years in the Navy safeguarding our rights & freedoms. Now he’s running for U.S. Congress to safeguard our individual communities and he’s using brand-new plans and fresh energy into our politics. Mr. Collins is combating for issues I care for like enhancing my kids education and protecting my town from failed Democratic Party laws. Additionally, Joe desires to reintroduce quality business opportunities improve economic empowerment and combat homeless which are hands down essential to me too. Please be sure to make a $75 dollar donation today to JOE COLLINS FOR CONGRESS like my family did so we can get his information out and be the victor this congressional seat. https://bit.ly/3Mzaa6A

  5. Attractive section of content. I simply stumbled upon your site
    and in accession capital to say that I acquire in fact enjoyed account your weblog posts.
    Anyway I will be subscribing to your augment or even I
    success you get entry to consistently fast.

  6. Hi! This publish couldn’t be written any improved! Examining this write-up reminds me of my aged space mate! He usually retained referring to this. I’ll forward this write-up to him. Rather sure he will have a good browse. Many thanks for sharing!

  7. Wonderful article! That is the type of information that are supposed to be shared
    around the internet. Disgrace on Google for no longer positioning this submit higher!
    Come on over and talk over with my web site . Thank you =)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Related Posts