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Follow these links to read about the post-election coalition talks and full coverage of the repeat elections scheduled for 1 November 2015.
Recent trend
[one_half]
Vote share in long-term decline. Plurality of votes almost certain. Seat loss very likely.
Vote share rising slightly. Very likely to be main opposition. Seat gain likely. [/one_half]
[one_half_last] 
Vote share rising in May after brief hiccup. Very likely to be third party. Seat gain very likely.
Steady rise in vote share. Likely to cross 10 per cent threshold.[/one_half_last]
Forecast last updated: 3 June 2015
