Recent trend[one_half] Vote share in long-term decline. Plurality of votes almost certain. Seat loss very likely.
Vote share rising slightly. Very likely to be main opposition. Seat gain likely. [/one_half] [one_half_last] Vote share rising in May after brief hiccup. Very likely to be third party. Seat gain very likely.
Steady rise in vote share. Likely to cross 10 per cent threshold.[/one_half_last]
Forecast last updated: 3 June 2015