If you look at article 132 of the by-laws that govern Turkey’s ruling AK Party, you will find a clause that is sensible and democratic. It imposes a strict three term limit on MPs and mayors, presumably to ensure youth and vigour and prevent cults of personality among the party’s ranks.The article reads:
Article 132: Repeat candidacy of elected party candidates
Mayors and members of parliament who become a candidate from an AK Party list and are subsequently elected can be a candidate for a maximum three terms.
But this was written when the party was established, before its 2002 election victory that surprised everyone, including the founders, and well before the 2007 and 2011 elections, where the victories were even greater.
Party leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has come to adopt a looser interpretation of article 132. The three term limit remains, he says, but it’s perfectly possible to take a break for one term and then return. It is also possible for third term MPs to go off and spend a term as mayor of Istanbul, for example, and then return to parliament afterwards.
Another flaw with the article is that the big man himself is affected by it. The prime minister has repeatedly declared he will not serve a fourth term; rather than modify his own party’s by-laws, he would rather change the constitution to make himself a French-style president with executive powers.
Mr Erdoğan’s ill-disguised ambitions do a pretty good job of disguising the effect of the three-term rule on the rest of his cabinet, however. 16 ministers – that’s nearly two-thirds of his cabinet – will be unable to stand as MPs at the next general election, which under current rules is due for 2015.
Rumours abound on who, particularly among the cabinet’s baby boomers, will retire and who will conveniently find work leading a largish council for three or four years. We’ll consider some of those in another entry; for now, here is our guide to who’s stuffed and who’s safe.
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Recep Tayyip ErdoğanPrime MinisterElected 9 March 2003
STUFFED
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Bülent ArınçDeputy PMElected 3 November 2002
STUFFED
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Beşir AtalayDeputy PMElected 3 November 2002
STUFFED
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Ali BabacanDeputy PMElected 3 November 2002
STUFFED
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Bekir BozdağDeputy PMElected 3 November 2002
STUFFED
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Ahmet DavutoğluForeign affairsElected 12 June 2011
SAFE
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Muammer GülerInterior affairsElected 12 June 2011
SAFE
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Sadullah ErginJusticeElected 3 November 2002
STUFFED
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Mehmet ŞimşekFinanceElected 22 July 2007
SAFE
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Mehmet MüezzinoğluHealthElected 22 July 2007
SAFE
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İsmet YılmazDefenceElected 12 June 2011
SAFE
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Nabi AvcıEducationElected 12 June 2011
SAFE
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Egemen BağışEuropean Union affairsElected 3 November 2002
STUFFED
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Zafer ÇağlayanEconomyElected 22 July 2007
SAFE
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Binali YıldırımTransport, communicationsElected 3 November 2002
STUFFED
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Mehmet Mehdi EkerFood and agricultureElected 3 November 2002
STUFFED
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Erdoğan BayraktarEnvironment and citiesElected 12 June 2011
SAFE
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Veysel EroğluForests and waterElected 12 June 2011
SAFE
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Cevdet YılmazDevelopmentElected 22 July 2007
SAFE
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Taner YıldızEnergy, natural resourcesElected 3 November 2002
STUFFED
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Nihat ErgünScience and industryElected 3 November 2002
STUFFED |
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Faruk ÇelikWork, social securityElected 3 November 2002
STUFFED
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Ömer ÇelikCulture and tourismElected 3 November 2002
STUFFED
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Fatma ŞahinFamily and social policiesElected 3 November 2002
STUFFED
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Suat KılıçYouth and sportElected 3 November 2002
STUFFED
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Hayati YazıcıCustoms and tradeElected 3 November 2002
STUFFED
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