Election 2014: Büyükşehir predictions

James in Turkey uses voting patterns and polling data to predict outcomes for the thirty Büyükşehir mayoral contests on 30 March.

Predictions will be updated regularly throughout March 2014.

Click here for the latest stories and a map of each party’s target provinces.

Lost councils (3)
Where we predict the incumbent party will lose

Too close to call (10)
Where we’re not confident making a prediction yet

Semi-safe councils (6)
Where we predict an ultimately unsuccessful challenge from an opposition party

Safe councils (11)
Where we predict the incumbent will hold the council