Can we trust Konda?

A leaked survey from a long-standing pollster appears to confirm what we already know about Turkey’s approaching general election
Konda Tarhan Erdem

A leaked survey from a long-standing pollster appears to confirm what we already know

Konda Tarhan Erdem This morning’s Cumhuriyet, a key opposition paper, is leading with polling story. Under the headline “AKP melting, CHP on the rise”, the paper points to a leaked survey by one pollster to suggest support for Turkey’s governing party is crumbling.

The paper says support for the governing AK Party has dropped from 42.9% to 40.5%, while the opposition CHP has increased from 26.2% to 28.7%.

It’s certainly a trend we’ve seen in recent months (see our rolling tracker for more on this) but many will be ask whether the company that came up with the numbers can be trusted.

Konda is one of Turkey’s oldest and most secretive pollsters. It doesn’t routinely publish its polls: in fact, its policy is to never confirm or deny the numbers attributed to it.

Shaky recent history…

That doesn’t stop publishing opinion polls on occasion. It has been predicting Turkish elections since the 1980s but made its name more recently when it correctly predicted a second AK Party landslide in 2007.

But it didn’t do anywhere nearly as well more recently. Its single poll for the 2014 presidential election was some way off the actual result, prompting Konda director Tarhan Erdem to apologise and launch a period of self-reflection.

He said at the time: “We apologise to public for our unacceptable error, which produced a disparity between our 7 August announcement regarding the possible result of the presidential election and the actual result that was beyond the margin of error.”

Rolling poll: 22 May
Rolling poll: 22 May

…but let’s run with it

In typical Konda fashion, the company is refusing to either associate or disassociate itself with this morning’s results. But the original source for the figures – BloombergHT, the Turkish offshoot of the global business channel – is credible. The broadcaster says the numbers caused the dollar to climb 0.03 Turkish Lira and the Istanbul stock exchange to dip by 1.4%.

We’ve updated our rolling poll average to reflect Konda’s result and a few other polls published in recent weeks. This places the AK Party on 42.3% and CHP on 26.6%, followed by the MHP (16.4%) and HDP (10.3%).

But while the result might be one of the more credible polls published in this election season, it doesn’t do too much more than confirm what we already suspect:

20150522 rolling average line
The rolling average in recent weeks

In the last few months support for the AK Party has dropped noticeably, but slightly. Support for the CHP and MHP has risen noticeably, but slightly. And the HDP is still hugging the 10% electoral threshold, but the side it will end up on is anybody’s guess.

But an additional note

Update: Turkish pollsters are traditionally reluctant to share details about how they gathered their data, but it’s worth reinforcing the point that we know even less about this Konda poll because it is a leak. As Christy Quirk points out, this means that we don’t know what the margin of error was in Konda’s poll: a margin of more than 2% could mean the headline fall in AK Party support is meaningless.

  1. Hi “James”. This is slightly unrelated to the topic but I always had that question so I will take the chance and ask it here.

    You say very often that there is no way Turkey will get a government other than an AKP. But unless I misintepretating the turkish electoral system, there is absolutely no way AKP will have a majority if HDP crosses the 10% thresholdt, which is looking likely.

    A rainbow coalition of HDP, CHP and MHP is obviously something quite unlikely but I fail too see how much more realistic is one of those parties lending support to Erdogan. Maybe the MHP, maybe. So why it’s so certain that AKP will rule no matter what? And how a minority government or a coalitiono with MHP would be different from the status quo nowadays?

    1. I don’t think I ‘very often’ rule out anything other than an AK government – in fact, I don’t recall saying that at all. Nothing about this election is certain and all the permutations you mention are possible. It’s perfectly possible for the AK Party to get a majority AND for the HDP to cross the threshold. An AK minority government is plausible, as is a rainbow coalition.

  2. “Have you ever considered creating an ebook or guest authoring on other sites? I have a blog based upon on the same subjects you discuss and would love to have you share some stories/information. I know my readers would value your work. If you are even remotely interested, feel free to shoot me an e mail.”

  3. “A further issue is that video games usually are serious naturally with the primary focus on knowing things rather than amusement. Although, we have an entertainment facet to keep the kids engaged, just about every game is generally designed to develop a specific skill set or course, such as mathmatical or scientific research. Thanks for your posting.”

  4. whoah this weblog is excellent i really like
    studying your posts. Stay up the great work! You already know, a lot of individuals
    are searching round for this info, you can help them greatly.

  5. Superb blog! Do you have any recommendations for aspiring writers?

    I’m planning to start my own website soon but
    I’m a little lost on everything. Would you propose starting with a free platform like WordPress or go for a paid option? There are so
    many choices out there that I’m completely confused ..
    Any ideas? Many thanks!

  6. What i don’t understood is actually how you are now not actually much more smartly-preferred than you may be now.
    You are so intelligent. You know thus considerably with regards to this matter, produced
    me in my view believe it from so many varied angles.

    Its like women and men aren’t involved until it’s one thing to accomplish with Lady gaga!
    Your individual stuffs outstanding. At all times
    take care of it up!

  7. I’m only 15, but i’m trying to raise money to go on a expensive trip next year. I am planning on getting a summer job, but it usually only pays minimum wage. I just want other people’s opinions on whether its safe and a good idea to become a blogger to get money. thanks!.

  8. Howdy very nice blog!! Guy .. Excellent ..
    Superb .. I’ll bookmark your site and take the feeds also?
    I am glad to find numerous useful info right here within the post, we’d like work out
    extra strategies in this regard, thanks for sharing.

    . . . . .

  9. Heya i’m for the primary time here. I found this board and
    I to find It really useful & it helped me out a lot.
    I am hoping to provide one thing back and help others such as you aided me.

  10. I don’t even know how I stopped up here, but I thought this submit was once great.I don’t understand who you’re however certainly you aregoing to a famous blogger if you aren’t already. Cheers!My blog post:

  11. fantastic points altogether, you just gained a brand new reader. What would you suggest in regards to your post that you made some days ago? Any positive?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Related Posts