This page is no longer being updated
Follow these links for:
● our coverage of the November 2015 election as it happened;
● the failed coalition talks that preceded them.
The James in Turkey rolling average records opinion polling ahead of the 1 November general election and charts the change in results.
Last updated: 30 October 2015
This page tracked Turkish opinion polls and how they have been shifting ahead of the general election.
A word of warning: the James in Turkey rolling average is not a scientific measure of Turkish voter intention. It does not balance between pro- and anti-government pollsters and it does not filter pollsters by reliability or data gathering methods.
What it does do is maintain a rolling average of the last five polls published by known Turkish pollsters. It weighs this result down with the previous five polling results, which helps give an idea of the trend in support while protecting the average against extreme outlier results.
Past rolling averages
The polling data this website uses
| Pollster | Date | AK Party | CHP | MHP | HDP | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konda | Oct 15 | 41.7 | 27.9 | 14.2 | 13.8 | 2.3 |
| Metropoll | Oct 15 | 43.3 | 25.9 | 14.8 | 13.3 | 2.7 |
| Gezici | Oct 15 | 43 | 26.1 | 14.9 | 12.2 | 3.8 |
| ORC | Oct 15 | 43.3 | 27.4 | 14 | 12.2 | 3.1 |
| Konda | Oct 15 | 40.9 | 30.4 | 14.3 | 11.8 | 2.6 |
| AKAM | Oct 15 | 40.45 | 28.22 | 14.33 | 14.17 | 2.83 |
| Konsensus | Oct 15 | 43 | 28.6 | 13.1 | 11.9 | 3.4 |
| Gezici | Oct 15 | 41.3 | 27 | 15.6 | 12.5 | 3.6 |
| MAK | Oct 15 | 43.5 | 27.8 | 13.6 | 12.1 | 3 |
| Sonar | Oct 15 | 40.5 | 27.3 | 15.2 | 13.1 | 3.9 |
| Gezici | Oct 15 | 40.8 | 27.6 | 15.8 | 13.6 | 2.2 |
| Metropoll | Oct 15 | 42.5 | 26.3 | 16.3 | 13 | 1.9 |
| Andy AR | Oct 15 | 42.6 | 27.1 | 15.2 | 12.1 | 3 |
| Konda | Sep 15 | 41.7 | 24.8 | 16.4 | 12.3 | 4.9 |
| Gezici | Sep 15 | 38.9 | 25.97 | 17.91 | 12.31 | 4.91 |
| MAK | Sep 15 | 43.72 | 26.67 | 14.05 | 11.5 | 4.06 |
| ORC | Sep 15 | 44 | 27.8 | 13.4 | 11 | 3.8 |
| AKAM | Sep 15 | 38.88 | 27.74 | 14.46 | 14.58 | 4.34 |
| Gezici | Sep 15 | 39.3 | 28.1 | 16.8 | 13.5 | 2.3 |
| Konsensus | Sep 15 | 43.3 | 27.6 | 13.8 | 12.6 | 2.7 |
| Sonar | Sep 15 | 38.2 | 28 | 18.2 | 13.7 | 1.9 |
| Metropoll | Aug 15 | 41.7 | 25.5 | 15.7 | 14.7 | 2.4 |
| Gezici | Aug 15 | 38.9 | 27.8 | 16.3 | 13.5 | 3.5 |
| AKAM | Aug 15 | 39.74 | 28.48 | 14.83 | 12.58 | 4.37 |
| Andy AR | Aug 15 | 42.8 | 27 | 15.9 | 12.8 | 1.5 |
| ORC | Aug 15 | 44.1 | 26.8 | 15.6 | 10.7 | 2.8 |
| Sonar | Aug 15 | 42.9 | 25.2 | 17 | 10.3 | 1.5 |
| AKAM | Jul 15 | 39.89 | 27.47 | 13.75 | 14.52 | 4.37 |
| ORC | Jul 15 | 43.9 | 27 | 15.5 | 10.9 | 2.7 |
| Gezici | Jul 15 | 40.1 | 26.1 | 14.7 | 14.2 | 4.9 |
| Andy AR | Jun 15 | 42.8 | 27.3 | 15.4 | 11.7 | 2.8 |
| Metropoll | Jun 15 | 41.6 | 25.1 | 16.2 | 12.9 | 4.2 |
| Gezici | Jun 15 | 38.5 | 28.5 | 16.5 | 12.5 | 4 |
| ORC | Jun 15 | 46 | 25.3 | 15.5 | 9 | 4.2 |
| Konda | Jun 15 | 41 | 27.8 | 14.8 | 12.6 | 3.8 |
| Metropoll | Jun 15 | 41 | 27.2 | 16 | 11.5 | 3.6 |
| Gezici | May 15 | 39.1 | 28.7 | 17.1 | 12.5 | 2.5 |
| AKAM | May 15 | 38.8 | 27.4 | 17.5 | 12.1 | 4.3 |
| Sonar | May 15 | 41 | 26 | 18.1 | 10.4 | 5.5 |
| Andy AR | May 15 | 41.9 | 25.8 | 16 | 10.7 | 5.6 |
| KONDA | May 15 | 40.5 | 28.7 | 14.4 | 11.5 | 4.9 |
| AKAM | May 15 | 38.9 | 28.1 | 17.6 | 11.8 | 3.7 |
| Gezici | May 15 | 38.2 | 30.1 | 17.1 | 10.5 | 4.1 |
| ORC | May 15 | 47.5 | 23.9 | 15 | 8.1 | 5.5 |
| SONAR | Apr 15 | 43 | 26.1 | 17.2 | 9.6 | 4.1 |
| Gezici | Apr 15 | 38.1 | 28.5 | 18 | 11 | 4.4 |
| Metropoll | Apr 15 | 42.5 | 26.4 | 17.6 | 10.2 | 3.3 |
| KONDA | Apr 15 | 42.9 | 26.2 | ? | 12.1 | 1.8 |
| MAK | Apr 15 | 45.2 | 24.8 | 15.3 | 9.2 | 5.5 |
| AKAM | Apr 15 | 40.7 | 25.5 | 18 | 11.4 | 4.4 |
| ORC | Apr 15 | 48.3 | 23.7 | 14.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 |
| Gezici | Apr 15 | 39.2 | 28.1 | 16.9 | 11.3 | 4.6 |
| Metropoll | Mar 15 | 41.7 | 27.7 | 17.4 | 10.4 | 2.8 |
| Gezici | Mar 15 | 39.3 | 29.6 | 17.7 | 11.4 | 2 |
| MAK | Mar 15 | 47.7 | 25.3 | 14.2 | 9.2 | 3.6 |
| ORC | Mar 15 | 50.3 | 23 | 14.1 | 8.6 | 4 |
| SONAR | Mar 15 | 40 | 27.1 | 18 | 10.1 | 4.8 |
| ORC | Mar 15 | 50 | 23.2 | 13.5 | 8.4 | 4.9 |
| Andy AR | Feb 15 | 45.2 | 25.6 | 16.5 | 9.2 | 3.5 |
| GENAR | Feb 15 | 39.1 | 28.7 | 18.1 | 9.5 | 4.6 |
| MAK | Feb 15 | 47.6 | 24.8 | 14.3 | 8 | 5.3 |
| ORC | Feb 15 | 49.8 | 23 | 13.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 |
| Gezici | Feb 15 | 35.2 | 29.1 | 20.5 | 9.5 | 5.7 |
| Gezici | Jan 15 | 39.8 | 29.6 | 17.3 | 7.3 | 6 |
| KONDA | Jan 15 | 45.4 | 23.3 | 15.1 | 10.6 | 5.6 |
| ORC | Jan 15 | 48.6 | 23.3 | 13.5 | 8.2 | 6.4 |