A fortnight before Turkey votes, Yes votes soar high

A fortnight before Turkey votes, Yes votes soar high

The Yes campaign in Turkey’s executive presidency referendum is cruising to a comfortable victory next month, a survey released to this website says.

The poll, by mobile research company Qriously, found more than three-fifths (61 percent) of Turkish voters will support plans to abolish the position of prime minister and grant sweeping executive powers to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

But it also found nearly one-third of likely voters (29 percent) had still not up their minds – a remarkably high proportion, considering the referendum is barely two weeks away.

The survey of 3,418 adults in Turkey was conducted in Turkish between Tuesday 28 – Thursday 30 March 2017 using Qriously’s platform for smartphone app surveys.

The survey also found:

  • The split in the MHP is evenly balanced, with nationalist voters not opposing the executive presidency proposals in sufficient numbers to deny the Yes camp victory;
  • The “AK Party generation” – voters aged 18-44 – overwhelmingly backs a Yes vote out of loyalty to President Erdoğan;
  • Reflecting the city’s traditional position as an electoral microcosm of Turkey, voters in Istanbul strongly back Yes;
  • No voters were more likely to say they understood the constitutional reform in detail, while those who knew only the broad ideas were likelier to vote Yes.

Undecided uncertainty

The headline percentages of the poll were YES (43.6), NO (27.4), UNDECIDED (29.0).

These findings will come as a surprise to those, this website included, who track publicly-available Turkish polling. There are very few polls out there that have produced a YES result above 60 percent: all of those were from pro-government pollsters, and none were published this month.

 

You could also take a dim view of the very high proportion of undecided voters, because it creates uncertainty over the final result. But Qriously says its experience from previous polls suggests the Turkish undecideds are likely to break in a similar fashion to the rest of the population – and that there was a similar level of indecision before last year’s Italian referendum.

That produces a YES (61.4), NO (38.6) result if the Turkish referendum was held yesterday, the day the fieldwork was completed. There are plenty of provisos on relying on a single poll and I discuss these at the end of this analysis.

Evenly divided MHP

This poll found that, by and large, party loyalty reflects voters’ referendum choice. The Yes camp is politically homogenous: a crushing majority (82.1 percent) of Yes voters would support the AK Party in a general election.

 

The No camp has more of a cross party appeal, although not in proportions significant enough to deliver it victory. The key party is the MHP, which has been bitterly divided by leader Devlet Bahçeli’s decision to endorse the Yes camp.

Some commentators have suggested as much as four-fifths of grassroots supporters back a No vote in spite of their leader – which will be crucial to that side’s victory – but this poll suggests the MHP divide is much more evenly balanced between the two referendum choices.

Youngsters out in force

Young people and those approaching middle age are the likeliest to support a Yes vote, this survey suggests, with the 35-44 age bracket most strongly in favour.

Support for No is higher among older people. That’s anyone born before 1972, which just happens to be anyone in living memory of the last successful military coup.

No-one in Turkey below the age of 36 has voted in a national election that the AK Party did not win. For all the talk of government authoritarianism and crackdown on the opposition, it’s easy to forget that the party has delivered a massive increase in living standards and prosperity since it came to power at the turn of the century and, for many voters, this is what still matters.

It is perhaps no coincidence that the 35-44 age bracket, which came out stronger in this poll for Yes than any other, is the one that will have reached political maturity during Turkey’s political and economic turmoil of the 1990s.

Many of them will have welcomed the relative stability delivered by AK.

Regional differences

“He who takes Istanbul takes the country” is the sage mantra of any Turkish election, and this poll suggests Yes are on track to do precisely that.

The city appears to be headed for YES (59.8), NO (40.2), which explains why CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu told CNN Turk last week that they will spend many of the campaign’s final days canvassing the city’s districts.

The most striking regional result is southeast Turkey – YES (68.4), NO (31.6) – where this poll suggests reports of the pro-Kurdish HDP’s dwindling influence appear to be true. Other regional differences are less striking: western Aegean and Thrace, both solid CHP areas, are firmly in the NO camp, while some of Yes’s strongest results come from the pro-AK Party Black Sea.

Qriously gauges a respondent’s location through their smartphone’s GPS reading, so it is entirely possible some users were not situated in the part of the country they will vote.

Education

A voter’s level of education is directly linked to their preference in this referendum, Qriously found.

Less educated voters – those who completed compulsory primary education or high school, but nothing more – were overwhelmingly in favour of Yes, while support for No was higher among university graduates.

As this website has previously written, the proposed constitutional changes are very complicated. No voters were also more likely to say they understood them in detail, whereas Yes supporters were more likely to say they only knew the broad ideas of the reforms.

A thought on Qriously

Many readers of this website will not have heard of Qriously before. I helped them with the wording of their questions for this poll, but did not run the fieldwork for them. Their methodology is best explained by themselves here.

This poll has a clear advantage over most publicly-available Turkish polling in that its methods are at least transparent. Qriously polls smartphone users by replacing an advertisement in an app with a series of questions. It’s an opt-in survey, meaning users dismiss it and carry on using their app if they wish.

As with all polls there are drawbacks. I tapped out opinion research and communications consultant Christine Quirk on this one, and she told me a major drawback in this case is in the demographics that cannot be targeted: internet users using a conventional desktop computer; anyone who has a cheap, “non-smart” mobile phone; and anyone who doesn’t own a mobile phone at all cannot be reached.

Mobile phone penetration is high in Turkey – 96.9 percent of households have at least one, according to government data – but the proportion of smartphone users is lower, at around 50 percent.

All these are factors that could weigh against a robust poll result.

Nonetheless, the company is confident they have a sample that broadly reflects Turkey’s demographic make-up. Qriously would argue its referendum methodology is tried and tested, having successfully called the UK’s Brexit and Renzi’s Italian referendum last year, as well as this month’s Dutch election. I leave the judgment to you.

A final note: this is not a one-off poll. There will be two further waves of polling between now and referendum day on 16 April, giving me – and you – ample opportunity for comparison.

Qriously worked with journalist Michael Daventry to develop the survey questions and gave his website James in Turkey exclusive access to the weighted results.

The poll surveyed 3,418 Turkish-language smartphone users based in Turkey between Tuesday 28 – Thursday 30 March 2017. Results were weighted on gender, age and region to be nationally representative of the Turkish adult population based on the latest available census data.

The cost of the poll was met entirely by Qriously.


Corrections: This article was updated on 31 March to credit Christy Quirk for the caveats on the poll’s reliability and to correct Graphic 2: Evenly divided MHP, where the vote proportions for HDP, “Other party” and “None” were accidentally shown as the same figure.

19 comments

  • I am not sure how reliable your poll is, but it seems horrible result from my perspective….I wish I knew what methodology you have used. Nothing surprises me anymore about Turkish politics. ..Most dictators comes to power with military takeover but Turks elect theirs…Something ain’t right..

    Reply
  • Thank you very much for this informative posting. However, I have to admit that even for me who is supporting the Yes campaign these figures appears very unrealistic.

    I doubt that the vast majority (= 6o% + x) of the Turkish electorate will vote in favor of Erdogan’s reforms. But, hopefully, I’m wrong and the pollsters are right.

    If you’re interested in my personal referendum forecast, here it comes:

    52% – 53% – Yes
    47% – 48% – No

    Reply
  • Your results don’t say the truth. I’ll interpret the posting step by step:

    1. The Southern Turkey where the majority of Kurdish descent people vote NO, %80. But your results say opposite.
    2. Western Side, especially crowded cities like Izmir, Eskisehir etc, in the No camp %70. But your results say %50-55. It’s not true.

    My guess is the result of the election neck to neck. And the undecideds will be specify it.

    Reply
  • Idiocracy is the result of ignorance. U.A.

    This poll shows the reality, and some people just wishfully thinking the NO camp will win.

    My take on the poll is: %63 YES

    For those idiots who say dictators come to power by military takeover and Turks elect their dictators, this is the most stupid comment I have ever heard.

    Reply
  • ILKER OZCANLI , this polling result is true. And even the polling in Izmir is true. Because he also counts Afyon and Kutahya to it’s polling method. And in 2015 1 november elections , Afyon had a 63,4% AKP voters and Kutahya had 67.6% AKP voters. Together , it’s normal that the total NO vote in the Izmir region is low.

    Reply
  • Your results hover around the truth very much currently. Except most undecideds will go for a YES vote. That means they are still thinking hard and analyzing the changes and listening to both sides. There is close to about 30% Turkish electorate who are always the final callers, they cannot be fooled by any means and anybody, and they always vote on the positive, progressive, reformist, and democratic people’s side. In this case it is the YES vote. If everybody really tries to understand the amendments in detail, the potential YES vote would be near 80%. But, wishful thinking, blinded minds about the most democratic governments and leader in the history of the republic, and the hatred of one man are just pitiful. These guys literally do not know what a dictatorship is for that matter what a democracy is! The constant untruths told about the amendments by CHP become the food for these fellows. It will backfire on them till the last day. I have studied the amendments very carefully and comparatively, and I am very well in tune with the American and European democracies. The framework of the proposed constitutional amendments in Turkey is at least on a par with the US presidential system, even superior to it since it realistically addresses and remedies the ailments encountered and complained about dearly in the US system. I am not joking either! It is a very highly rationalized system based on the social and historical realities of Turkey and the Turkish political experiences of the last 80 years.

    Reply
  • Here is my thought. Upcoming Turkish referendum is not comparable to any other in Turkey or elsewhere – circumstances surrounding it are way different than say Italy’s referendum. There is a real fear of prosecution – which clearly shows in the size of the undecided campaign. I would imagine those are really No votes and some Yes votes will also turn No.

    Reply
  • Pingback: Sriously? A few thoughts on our poll last week - James in Turkey

  • Pingback: Yes still ahead, but gap narrows in new Turkish referendum poll - James in Turkey

  • Undecided people will vote no. Because these people are afraiding to show their real thoughts because of the pushes of the goverment. At least, 2out of 3undecided voters will vote as no. But it seems nothing will change. This is the most important week . According to yhe survey that uneducated people vote yes. It is clear that education is a must for a better life.

    Reply
  • Pingback: A request for a moment of your time - James in Turkey

  • People tried to explain you why this poll was rubbish and yet you just dismissed them and the best you could say “Well, we’ll see on election day”. Of course we would see what the result would be on election day but the onslaught of manipulative polls were part of the factors that affected the results. Whoever wrote this did not know much about statistics or polling. In my twitter account I tried to explain this to the author but i was dismissed as well. Well done. I would like to empathize with pundits and journalists in the era of Trump but they had it coming. Best I can say is that this was one of the most irresponsible pieces I have seen during this campaign. Because the alternative is just plain evil: helping RTE.

    Reply
  • I am so impressed by you being more and more into our country’s politics and election than we do, and you’re spending hours and hours on ‘solving’ our problems (or making new problems, i’m not sure) and even spending a great deal of money on all those surveys and stuff. Pretty doubtful. You know what, leave us alone. Leave. Just move and stop trying to divide us. Enough messes you all made. Go on and spend your money on your country’s problems. We don’t really need your “help(!)”.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *