The cities that could go at the next election

Outside the biggest cities, wider boundaries and electoral maths suggests Turkey’s governing AK party has some vulnerabilities

Outside the biggest cities, wider boundaries and electoral maths suggests Turkey’s governing AK party has some vulnerabilities


For this month’s local election, the rules have changed. There are now twice as many Büyükşehirs and, apart from Istanbul and Kocaeli, all have much wider boundaries. This means more people than ever before – 76 per cent of all voters in the country – will be electing the mayor of their nearest large city, even if they live hours away in a remote mountain village.

This website’s analysis of voting patterns reveals that the wider boundaries and increased electorate can significantly affect the results in more than half of Turkey’s Büyükşehirs:

  • In 19 provinces, new rural voters account for at least one-third of the total electorate;
  • In 12 provinces, new rural voters outnumber existing urban voters;
  • Had the 2009 election run under today’s rules, six provinces would have a mayor from a different party.

The six provinces in question are a mix of coastal and southeastern provinces. Unlike the AK Party’s 102 safe seats in central Anatolia, which represent a largely homogeneous population, these six  are a diverse mix of ethnicities and professions. Their main cities are not all held by the same single party. In all of them, the 2009 victor is at serious risk of losing in 2014.

The marginal six

  • Balıkesir, in the west, currently held by the nationalist MHP;
  • Mersin and Ordu, coastal provinces held by the MHP and CHP respectively;
  • Hatay, Mardin and Şanlıurfa, all AK Party provinces bordering Syria in Turkey’s southeast.

The enlarged boundaries mean that people living in villages high in the mountains outside central Mersin and Ordu will be electing a Büyükşehir mayor for the first time. Unlike their coastal counterparts, which strongly support opposition parties, people here are more conservative and likely to support the AK Party.

Blue town, red coast, yellow countryside

Balıkesir is an interesting province because all three main parties have a shot at winning it in 2014. The town itself was won by the MHP in 2009, but its coastal areas swing towards the CHP and more rural areas inland are pro-AK Party; put together in 2009, AK would have won here, but this year’s race is wide open.

And some of AK’s southeastern possessions are under threat too. The party has long boasted its ability to win the Kurdish vote and hold towns like Mardin, but voters living outside the main city outnumber those inside by 4 to 1, making it very likely that the victory here will be Ahmet Türk, the pro-Kurdish BDP’s candidate. Şanlıurfa, which AK has lost before to an independent rival, is under similar threat.

Syria factor

The party also risks losing Hatay. Turkey’s southernmost city was an easy win for AK in 2009, but the surrounding newly enfranchised districts have tended to support the opposition CHP.

Another factor is the presence of multiple camps housing Syrian refugees, which have been known to aggravate the local population. One district to watch will be Reyhanlı, the site of a bombing with connections to the Syrian conflict. This will be the AK Party’s first electoral test after that attack.

  1. “Hi there, just became aware of your blog through Google, and found that it is truly informative. I’m gonna watch out for brussels. I’ll be grateful if you continue this in future. Many people will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!”

  2. Pingback: Anonymous
  3. Pingback: Anonymous
  4. Pingback: Anonymous
  5. Pingback: cialis price
  6. Pingback: stromectol msd
  7. Pingback: lasix 10 mg tablet
  8. Pingback: invermectin
  9. Thanks mattress for lower back pain reliefanother magnificent post. The place else could anyone get thatkind of info in such an ideal manner of writing? I have a presentation subsequent week, and I’m on the look forsuch information.

  10. I am curious to find out what blog system you’re using?I’m having some small security issues with my latest blog and I’d like to find something more risk-free.Do you have any suggestions?

  11. Great post. I was checking continuously this blog and I’m impressed! Extremely helpful info specifically the last part 🙂 I care for such information much. I was seeking this certain info for a long time. Thank you and good luck.

  12. สาวกผี สาวกหงส์ สาวกสิงห์ สาวกเรือ สาวกไก่ สาวกจิ้งจอก ไม่ว่าคุณจะเป็นสาวกไหนก็ตาม UFABET ขอเป็นส่วนหนึ่งในการเปลี่ยนสิ่งที่คุณถูกใจเป็นรายได้ ด้วยการยกคาสิโนมาไว้ให้คุณพนันบอลออนไลน์ได้อย่างง่ายๆกันเลยขอรับ

  13. Aw, this was an exceptionally good post. Taking the time and actual effort to make a top notch articleÖ but what can I sayÖ I procrastinate a whole lot and never seem to get anything done.

  14. Hello! I’m at work browsing your blog from my new iphone 3gs!Just wanted to say I love reading through your blog and look forward to allyour posts! Carry on the fantastic work!

  15. Wow! This could be one particular of the most helpful blogs We’ve ever arrive across on this subject. Basically Magnificent. I am also an expert in this topic so I can understand your effort.Oneida Kahler

  16. Hello my friend! I want to say that this article is amazing,great written and come with almost all important infos.I would like to peer extra posts like this .

  17. Thanks for another great article. Where else could anybody get that type of information in such an ideal way of writing? I’ve a presentation next week, and I am on the look for such info.

  18. Thank you for any other excellent article.The place else may just anyone get that type of information in such a perfect method of writing?I’ve a presentation next week, and I am on the look for such information.

  19. Pingback: do-posle-psihologa
  20. Hello there, just became aware of your blog through Google, and found that it’s truly informative. I am gonna watch out for brussels. I will appreciate if you continue this in future. A lot of people will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!

  21. I blog quite often and I genuinely appreciate your information. This great article has truly peaked my interest. I’m going to take a note of your blog and keep checking for new information about once a week. I opted in for your Feed too.

  22. I am not sure where you are getting your information, but great topic.I needs to spend some time learning more or understanding more.Thanks for wonderful info I was looking for this information for my mission.

  23. Pingback: DPTPtNqS
  24. Pingback: qQ8KZZE6
  25. Pingback: D6tuzANh
  26. Pingback: SHKALA TONOV
  27. Pingback: chelovek-iz-90-h
  28. Pingback: 3Hk12Bl
  29. Pingback: 3NOZC44
  30. Pingback: 01211
  31. Hey! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any problems with hackers?My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I endedup losing several weeks of hard work due to no back up.Do you have any solutions to stop hackers?

  32. Pingback: tor-lyubov-i-grom
  33. Pingback: film-tor-2022
  34. Pingback: hd-tor-2022
  35. Pingback:
  36. Aw, this was an exceptionally nice post. Spending some time and actual effort to generate a very good articleÖ but what can I sayÖ I procrastinate a whole lot and don’t seem to get nearly anything done.

  37. Pingback: Psikholog
  38. Pingback:
  39. Pingback: Link
  40. Pingback: 2pillage
  41. Important: Only customers using the correct links and any necessary bonus codes (if required) will qualify for the associated bet365 promotions. 18+. New depositing on customers only. Promotion from 08 06 2021 until further notice. Once the deposit is made the bonus is activated. Deposit method restrictions apply. Bonus code required during the first deposit, min ВЈ10 deposit. The bonus consists of a 100% deposit amount match. The max bonus available is ВЈ100. Bonus & deposit wagering requirements x35 within 7 days on selected slots only. Real money and bonus money will be used evenly when wagering requirements are active. Individual bonus funds bets ВЈ1 max. Full T&Cs apply. We’ve put together a one-stop guide for finding the best sites offering bonuses with no deposit necessary, with a few tips for when you actually get hold of that juicy bonus. Deposit bonuses are always good – like this ВЈ15 free playing cash at NetBet – but for the no deposit stuff, read on. Whether you’re a newbie or a veteran of online casino games, we cater to you. There isn’t an online casino game here that we wouldn’t play ourselves! Online slots, classic table games, live casino games, online scratch games and bingo; all available right here 24 7! You’ll find the perfect balance of real money and no deposit games. Not sure what either of those things mean? No worries, they’re pretty easy to grasp: Casinos Online Canada Jackpot Wheel Casino also offers a unique Birthday Bonus. However, you would have to have deposited an amount equal to the bonus itself, three months before the appointed date. Jackpot Wheel Casino Promotion Bonus *d – deposit ; *b – bonus ; *WR -wagering ; *FS – free spins In addition to a secure and responsive site, Jackpot Wheel also features a large number of games including popular titles like: Cosmopolitan, Pina Nevada, Cash Puppy, Le Chocolatier and Tails of New York. They also have numerous other casino games from Baccarat and 3 Card Poker to Keno and Scratch Cards. With a reputable and responsive customer support team, numerous games and a safe and secure website, it’s no wonder Jackpot Wheel is a player favorite!

  42. Excellent post. I was checking continuously this blog and I’m impressed!Very useful info particularly the last part 🙂 Icare for such information a lot. I was looking for this particular infofor a long time. Thank you and best of luck.

  43. Unfortunately, since paysafecard is a prepaid method you can’t make withdrawals with the payment option. There are a number of alternatives however which you can find here on our website to learn all about – including web wallets which you can sign up for quickly and easily. paysafecard is accepted at over 3,500 websites, including a huge number of online casinos. As an alternative to eWallets and other commonly used payment methods, paysafecard is popular amongst players who value anonymity and security in their online gambling transactions. Accepted by numerous reputable online casinos, Paysafecard is a convenient and fast prepaid deposit option. It allows you to fund your casino account without sharing your personal or financial details with the casino of your choice. As a prepaid card, Paysafecard can be bought online or at over 500,000 sales outlets in 40 countries, which means that you can use it even if you don’t own a bank account or credit card. Welcome bonuses don’t get much more generous than this! The exclusive Mandarin Palace bonus for new players consists of 2 elements. Free Spins and Deposit Match Bonuses. 70 Unfastened Spins for Mandarin Palace Bonus Link: Treasure Mile Casino – Grand Eagle – Mandarin Palace Casino – Lucky Creek Casino This bonus are only valid for new players signing up with the links on this site and from the following Geos: USA, Canada, New Zealand, Spain, Ireland, Finland, Norway, Poland, Sweden, Czech Republic, Brazil, Mexico and Slovakia From the Far East to the most western corner, Mandarin Palace Online Casino has become legendary for bestowing upon its players some of the best casino rewards in the spirit of prosperity and fortune – a tradition that is closely guarded by the dragon for the sake of all who call this online casino, home. Mandarin palace casino no deposit codes Please enable Cookies and reload the page.

  44. That is a great tip particularly to those fresh to the blogosphere. Brief but very accurate infoÖ Thanks for sharing this one. A must read article!

Leave a Reply to gspot stimulator Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Related Posts